My Tony Award Predictions: A Very Competitive Season with a Maybe Happy Ending
The 2024-25 Broadway season — which ended April 30 — was one of the richest and most competitive seasons in years. While there hasn't been been a megahit of the likes of “Hamilton” or “The Producers,” there were plenty of simply solid and rather terrific shows.
So which shows, and their talent, will be winners at this Sunday’s Tony Awards?
Here are my thoughts and predictions. (I’ll share my thoughts on the designer and other categories in a separate blog.)
Best Revival of a Play
Eureka Day
Romeo + Juliet
Our Town
Yellow Face
While I admired many, I wasn’t floored by any of the nominees. Between “Eureka Day” and “Yellow Face,” I’d go with “Eureka Day” (mainly due to its hysterical Zoom group posting scene.)
Best Revival of a Musical
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Blvd.
Between “Gypsy” and “Sunset Boulevard,” I’d go with “Sunset Boulevard,” no, “Gypsy,” no, with “Sunset Boulevard.” Yes. I’m sure. I think.
Best Play
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose
There are two Pulitzer Prize winners here and the surprise hit of the season (“Oh, Mary!”) I’ll go with “Purpose,” giving playwright Brendan Jacob Jenkins two wins in two years.
Best Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
Any one of these shows would win in lesser years but I feel Tony voters will go with their hearts and pick the sublime “Maybe Happy Ending.”
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
Mia Farrow, The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain
Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Though I love saying “a Sink and Snook face-off” I think it’s really between Snook and Donnelly, both playing multiple characters with dazzle. For me, I was more stunned and moved by Laura Donnelly’s performance.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
Harry Lennix, Purpose
Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
It’s Cole Escola’s year. Cheers to awarding a Tony for comic brilliance.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Tala Ashe, English
Jessica Hecht, Eureka Day
Marjan Neshat, English
Fina Strazza, John Proctor is the Villain
Kara Young, Purpose
Theater folks adore (rightfully) Kara Young who has been nominated for her every Broadway performance — winning last year for “Purlie Victorious.” A second win a row? Perhaps. But I think Tony voters will reward veteran actor (who grew up in Bloomfield, CT) Jessica Hecht for her overall career.
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Glenn Davis, Purpose
Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor Is the Villain
Francis Jue, Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora, Oh, Mary!
Similarly, one of our great character actors, Francis Jue, should get the Tony for the two characters he plays in the David Henry Hwang comedy.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald, Gypsy
Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical
Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her
Is it possible to have a five-way tie? (I’d even give a sixth nomination slot to Helen J. Shen). Perhaps the Patti LuPone brouhaha will benefit Audra McDonald so I’d say add one more statue to her mantle for this blazing performance — though Jasmine Amy Rogers may slip in for her star-making performance as Betty Boop.)
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis, Sunset Blvd.
Jonathan Groff, Just in Time
James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Again, I can see almost everyone here stepping up to receive the award. Jeremy Jordan sings his heart out, Jonathan Groff could win two years in a row, and Criss could be a surprise winner for his delicate robot-with-a-heart performance. Argh! Who to choose? I’d go with Jonathan Groff for his non-stop energy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Criss win.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon, Buena Vista Social Club
Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw
Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time
Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
Joy Woods, Gypsy
Natalie Venetia Belcon for her regal and moving pewrformance.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, SMASH
Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw
Danny Burstein, Gypsy
Jak Malone, Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins
It’s between Brooks Ashmanskas and Malone. Ashmanskas works feverishly and deserves a Tony after all these years but I’ll go with Jak Malone for his singular moment in “Operation Mincemeat” that had the audience in tears.
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali, Buena Vista Social Club
Michael Arden, Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer, Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd, Sunset Blvd.
Though all deserving, this is an easy one because of the nature of the show, its journey to Broadway and its stylistic vision: Michael Arden.
Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams, English
Sam Mendes, The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton, Oh, Mary!
Danya Taymor, John Proctor Is the Villain
Kip Williams, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Danya Taymor coud also be yet another two-in-a-row winner, and I’d say well-deserved. The production is terrific.
Best Book of a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club, Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw, Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her, Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
I feel a “Maybe Happy Ending” sweep so it’s Will Aronson and Hue Park.
Best Original Score
Dead Outlaw, David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her, Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending, Will Aronson (music and lyrics) and Hue Park (lyrics)
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical, David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts
Real Women Have Curves: The Musical, Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez
Ditto for Will Aronson and Hue Park
Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, SMASH
Camille A. Brown, Gypsy
Christopher Gattelli, Death Becomes Her
Jerry Mitchell, BOOP! The Musical
Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, Buena Vista Social Club
What great choreopghraphy this season (and I’d add Shannon Lewis for “Just in Time.”) But I see Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck getting the prize. (And fior Justin another two-in-a-row winner.)
Note: There just may be 5 winners who have won 2 years in a row which must be a record of some kind.